
Mohamed Abdelkader
IIHR—Hydroscience & Engineering, University of Iowa
mohamed-abdelkader@uiowa.edu
To effectively communicate potential risks, operational forecasters and hydrologists require a strong understanding of the probability and severity of extreme rainfall events. Precipitation frequency-duration curves are a fundamental tool in this endeavor, quantifying the likelihood of rainfall events with different intensities and durations at particular locations. The complexities involved in constructing and interpreting these curves for weather forecasts, infrastructure design, emergency responses, and within the context of a changing climate highlight a critical need for a learning module to develop the necessary knowledge for these operational applications.
This module equips operational hydrologists with the fundamental context needed for real-time forecasting during extreme rainfall events and for contributing to long-term planning and response efforts, with the flexibility to incorporate considerations of changing climatic conditions.
Precipitation statistics; Probability distribution; Exceedance Probability and Return Period; Depth-Duration-Frequency Curve; Stationary vs. Nonstationary; NOAA Atlas 14; NOAA Atlas 15; Access forecast rainfall; Access gauge rainfall.
Before starting this module, learners should have:
For foundational material, learners are encouraged to review the following HydroLearn modules:
At the end of this module, students will be able to:
This will be accomplished through a series of short readings on fundamental concepts, accompanied by learning activities in sections.
This module is broken down into sections with small units. Each section is self-contained and can be exercised individually.
IIHR—Hydroscience & Engineering, University of Iowa
mohamed-abdelkader@uiowa.edu
University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa
tsangy@hawaii.eduOperational hydrologists and forecasters
Computer with access to Internet and basic programming knowledge in python.
The module developers estimate that this module will take between 2 to 3 hours to complete.
This course is available for export by clicking the "Export Link" at the top right of this page. You will need a HydroLearn instructor studio account to do this. You will first need to sign up for a hydrolearn.org account, then you should register as an instructor by clicking 'studio.hydrolearn' and requesting course creation permissions.
Abdelkader, M., Tsang, Y. (2025) Precipitation Frequency and Storm Analysis in Operational Hydrology. CIROH. https://edx.hydrolearn.org/courses/course-v1:CIROH_HydroLearn+OP_020+2025/about.
This module is adapted from
Development of Design Storms
This module uses Hurricane Helene as a case study and use datasets from Asheville, NC. This module utilizes Python JupyterNotebook to allow a streamlined process in the learning activities.
This experimental data represents the NWS’s best approximation of the maximum inundation extent that occurred on Sep. 26 (or Sep. 27), 2024, as of Jan 6, 2025, based upon modeled river discharge. These maps were not publicly available during the event (coinciding with Hurricane Helene). This information should be used for educational purposes only.
This project received funding under award NA22NWS4320003 by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Cooperative Institute Program to the Cooperative Institute for Research on Hydrology (CIROH) through the University of Alabama. The statements, findings, conclusions, and recommendations are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of NOAA.